The Seeds of the Next Big Thing Are Being Planted Now
by Dan Kimerling on October 4, 2008


September 4th 2008 marked Google’s tenth birthday. That means that during 2000 and 2001, when all the air was being let out of the dot-com bubble, Google was in its infancy. That was a good idea that survived the bleakest time for high tech companies. On the flip side, Facebook has not even reached its fifth birthday, but as a company it is worth well more than four billion dollars. Great ideas can scale and become big businesses very quickly. And incredible organizations like Six Apart, Plaxo, and Ning were all started before the Web 2.0 boom. What does this say about the nature of technological development and its relationship to the economy? That technological developments breed innovation, and that innovation can produce economic benefits with demonstrable impacts on the bottom line. No one knows what the next Google will be, but if it is not being built now, then someone will probably start working on it in the near future. Don’t stop working on side projects and ideas that interest you, because those ideas not only might turn into brilliant products or services but also might turn into the economic catalyst that spurs our economy onward.

When someone like Ron Conway says not to leave your day job, serious people listen. But, here I need to say that I respectfully disagree with Ron. Times are tough, but it is important to not stop coming up with new and innovative solutions to people’s problems. It is the people who are tinkering in their garage or coding in their dorm room, people who are really trying to do something new, that will hopefully spur the next boom. Given the current economic environment, continued technological innovation is one of the things that is likely to turn the economy around and help restore confidence in the health of the world wide economic engine. Logistically that is easier said than done, given that VC funding, essential for many startups, will not come if VC funds do not see IPOs occurring because the IPO market is all but non-existent and corporate buyers cannot go to credit markets in order to fund acquisitions. But, please do not stop tinkering and coming up with new ideas.

Of course this places the technology community in quite a tricky situation. How can startups grow, something essential to returning the US economy to a normal business cycle, if banks, VCs funds, PE interests and others, are unable to provide that funding? Unfortunately, I do not have an answer to such a tough question. Obviously angels will be doing the brunt of the investing, and that is a good thing. Angels can wait longer for a liquidity event, and also have an higher tolerance for failure, whether because the company and/or ideas was bad, or because of the macro-economic environment. Similarly incubators and seed funding sources, such as Y Combinator and TechStars will play an even larger role, as other funding sources dry up. Business plan competitions and good old-fashioned bootstrapping, also become much more attractive, as are asking family and friends.

Thankfully the costs associated with starting a company have gone down, with open source and webware software, along with ever cheaper and more powerful hardware. Pay roll will still be hard to make, but the more money you can spend on head count and the less you can spend on everything else the longer you can keep your organization going. Getting lean is one of the best ways to stay afloat during a bad economy.

One thing that is really excites me about the moment is seeing all innovation that is coming. If advertising dollars dry up, and there is some early suggestion that they might, then you will see startups experiment with new revenue streams. Some of them will fail, but some of them will work, and when the start-up community finds those that do work, start-ups will evolve to incorporate these new revenue models. Recall that it took Google a relatively long time to figure out how to make money from search ads. As funding because tighter and tighter, it means that the rate of technological innovation will likely speed up, out of necessity to find new ways to make internet companies profitable quickly. And, just as people say it will be hard to get VC funding, the large VCs will have money to invest. For those gems, funding will still be available, as it was in 2000 and 2001. It will just be much harder to get that money.

So to all those start-ups out there, know that we are in a rough patch as is the global economy. But it is the tech sector that can keep the global economy moving, even as other traditionally bellwether sectors fall by the way side. And it is at moments like this that the next Facebooks, Myspaces, and Googles are being born. So please keep working. Lets just hope that new giants can grow quickly enough and sturdy enough to restore confidence not only in the high tech space, but also in the global economy’s ability to withstand such strong disruptions such as the one we currently face. Google and Facebook show that it can be done.

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nice article, thanks for sharing some thoughts

Sometimes it’s one technology combined with another that makes the “next” big thing. Regardless….each of us must continue to work and create. When you need to bump up your personal performance and “keep it going” you might look for an Energy Chew to supplement your day. Have you had a LiveWire Energy Chew? Try it. Several innovative food technologies were combined…and a functional food product created!

 

Sorry Dan but you are way off with your conclusion. Saying that great tech innovations lead the economy out of tough times is as illogical as saying terrible tech innovations sitting in the TC death pool are leading the economy into tough times.

The true moral of the story is that - in tough times - people create tools with real utility and real business models. There is neither patience, nor money for kids with cool ideas, so entrepreneurs are forced to get back to the basics in tough times. They are absorbed into the mainstream and flourish as the economy inevitably enters the recovery and prosperity.

This only further supports my well documented claim that the last 4 years has seen far too much emphasis on “cool” but utterly useless tools. It is no coincidence - but it is ironic - that this occurs as VC’s become flush with cash thanks the success of real technologies.

Unfortunately, the availablity of funds leads to waaayyy too many dumb ideas, which are only accentuated by the likes of Techcrunch that get caught up in the mania, which then leads to waaayyy more dumb ideas.

Unfortunately - but inevitably - dumb ideas don’t last. VC’s get squeezed by the lack of exits and suddenly people in Silicon Valley are shocked at the drop off in VC funding.

If you need any further proof, just take a look at both the size of the TC Dead Pool and it’s accelerating rate of growth.

Unlike Dan, however, I won’t make the mistake of creating a causal connection betwen crappy technology innovations and a weakening economy. Crappy technologies suffer in a weak economy, they don’t create a weak economy.

Likewise, great technologies are born out of scarcity and flourish in a growing economy, they don’t create it.

Regards,
George

 
 

Yeah but there comes a point at which if the odds in the current climate are stacked against you, maybe it is worth sitting on the sidelines for a bit.

Startups are likely to fail at the best of time. If the conditions are that more worse and it’s looking really unlikely then why try your idea now when you can wait it out and get a better chance.

You often only get one shot at your idea - VC’s are not very receptive to *the same person* saying “well I tried this idea 3 years ago and it failed and now I’m trying it again”. (of course, there’s a long list of people who reinvigorated other people’s ideas that didn’t take off during the downturn but could be better propositioned during rosier times.)

In fact taking an idea and doing a better implementation is a classic start-up mold, and might make sense now. Even a marginal improvement can be enough

 

The way the economy is at the moment, your money isn’t safe in the bank, nor can you invest in stocks and shares, or property and with increases in fuel , commodity and food costs. With these traditional investments are all pretty risky. new business models and new technology markets , may be the only thing that can bring the economy’s of the us and europe back to some degree of stability.

Firstly, there’s a deep recession, and likely stagflation coming to U.S. shores, so world demand for oil will decline precipitiously (a Merril Lynch analyst, suggesting $50/barrel by the end of ‘09′. Therefore commodity, oil, and food costs will decline.

secondly, yes you’re right about technology as a panacea for the U.S. financial ailment, but it won’t be in web x.0, but clean tech. It’s time for the clean tech bubble. Furthermore, similar to how internet/web stock cannibalized old economy stocks and companies, because the ROI was better, thereby diverting capital and investments to this segment of the market, so too will you see creative destruction proppeling clean tech. Clean Tech stocks/companies and its ecosystem will likely have noticably higher ROI than the web/internet stocks and companies, thus investors will pull out of this area of the market, and put it all in clean tech, thereby eviscerating most of the remaining dot com companies market values.

Creative destruction is a bitch isn’t it.

 
 
 

Great post. As one of the scrappy startups getting ready to weather the storm, I couldn’t agree more. This is a great time to start building great companies - entrepreneurship is all about maximizing the output from scare resources. This is the time to prove one’s mettle. It’s obviously easier said than done, but I think replacing VC dollars with innovation and creativity will let startups not just survive, but flourish.

I cannot agree with you more. Necessity is the mother of invention (and innovation)

 

Nothing better than a good storm to waterproof your new business!

 
 
 

Thanks for great motivational post. :)

 

Great article, Dan. I couldn’t agree with you more. Your words of encouragement and motivation is the fuel us technological entrepreneurs need in continuing to pursue our dreams in developing more efficiencies and innovations in this time of economic adversity.

 

Snore………..

Not since Scoble’s MicroPOOP Universe Telescope or the Segway have i been so Deflated - i was really Hoping to Learn + Hear of something New + Exciting + Web3D.0 ala iGOO MEGA but alas I was Duped by Arrington’s Tweet on Twitter*

;))

 
 

Great post Dan, I have to say I couldn´t agree more and I’d go a step further and say that the best start ups are often the ones that emerge in times such as these. I’ve actally just written about how having a bit less funding can actually be a good thing for a start up: http://www.alexisbonte.com/?p=27

 

Dan, learn to use the return key. I can’t read a wall of text, no matter how interesting it may be.

Although if the quality of this article is anything like your “stop whining about the iPhone” article, then I don’t think I’m missing much.

 

Dan, fantastic post very inspirational and good advice.

 

The fact is that virtually every successful startup (nine out of ten) was started during a downturn in the economy. It forces us to focus on getting a viable new idea to market, on building cash flow rather than relying too much on invested capital and on developing applications and products for which there is true demand, not demand based on irrational exuberance such as we see during booms.
From a marketing perspective it is critical to continuously market, especially when things are bad, because there is a lag in the effects of marketing- if you stop now, when there is an upturn you’ll be scrambling to catch up. The good news is that not only is it much cheaper to build a company, it is also much cheaper to market a company using social media. We’ve been building a brand with virtually no budget by engaging a community of interest around our product (social media monitoring) and our sales are doing very well.
Finally, don’t tie your success to an advertising model. Advertising is going to implode big time in the next year or so, because of the social layer of the net, where it not only does not work, but can actually have a negative effect as people respond negatively and tell others.

 

Any smart entrepreneur will tell you raising is not the ideal expansion model. You may need $ for start-up/development costs but it’s hardly millions, especially for what’s mostly being created in the market. Hard work, focus, etc., is the most important thing you need to make a start up successful. I’ve always found personally that entrepreneurs who envision or need big capital are overspenders, and that fails in any start up environment.

What I find incredible is how AWS and Google App Engine are such disruptive forces in this regard. Outsourcing the hardware and infrastructure, and turning it into a commodity means that capital can be more focused on strategy and development.

I think being capital efficient is key. That and not buying too many thousand dollar Aeron chairs :)

 
 
silicon valley dropout - October 4th, 2008 at 11:16 am PDT

Dan Kimerling you going soft. what happen to your just shut and accept reality mentality in your post.

 

This is a very interesting piece. On a grand scale, startups are good because they stimulate growth especially in a downturn. But on an individual scale, its scary for to encourage someone to launch a startup especially if they don’t have any capital locked up. How much VC funding did google have on its books during the tech bear market? Capital is obviously a huge determinant of everything.

George,
Capital is obviously a huge factor, and Google did have $25.1M in the bank when it went public. I think the divide you point out is accurate, between the Macro and the Micro. Figuring out a way to make payroll is much more of an issue to most start-ups, than the macro health of the economy, even if they may both be important

dan…

google had pretty much fleshed out the raw/basic idea when serge/larry were at stanford. and this is my point, if you put a great deal of effort into proving your idea (and not just a website) then you can get by with an extremely low amount of capital being expended.

serge/larry were willing to toil for quite awhile, without getting a check. how many other “entrepreneurs” would be so willing to try to achieve their goals?

peace

 
 
 

I liked the post a lot but I do not understand how facebook fits into it…did they start in a downturn? are they a cash generating machine? arent they 100% committed to the advertising only rev stream you are warning us about? arent they living purely off of investment capital and not revenues?

just asking.

To me, Facebook shows how you can turn nothing into something, and then then that something into something huge in a relatively short period of time. Clearly Zuckerberg was in the right place at the right time, but often that is all it takes.

Facebook is highly overvalued and I think their luck has already started to dry up. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were forced to cut jobs in 6 months.

 

I’m with aon: Facebook epitomizes the web 2.0 bubble. A overrated college undergrad steals an idea for a web site, resulting in no real innovation and a vastly overvalued business tenuously built on hype and a large userbase, with no viable source of income.

 
 
 

I’m truly impressed with this post Dan. I don’t think I’ve read any of your previous posts, but this post is definitely one of the top TC posts I’ve ever read, up there with Mike’s best posts.

You have a really good vision and and a way to inspire people. Please post more on TC about items like this. The best news posts are usually the ones that aren’t about a specific event in the news at the moment, but rather a post about a series of events or the state of a situation from a macro-level.

Great great work. I’m a longtime TC reader and I’m truly impressed. Mike, let him come back for more posts and let him post what he wants!

Is that the sound of you sucking Dan’s dick I am hearing ? please people, not in public.

 
 

“The internet breeds efficiency over innovation! ”

seeds have already been planted and the trees are growing. we are at an apex of innovation. save yourselves and get a real job. doctor, dentist, plumber. the internet does not need another website, startup or app widget. As the the net becomes more and more efficeint every day it will eliminate the need for more startups. there is only so much people want to see and do in cyberspace and we have enough websites to find it with. Simplicity rules.

TruthLocator.com- dont lie http://seesmic.com/videos/Q7B9X13aTE

Then why are you holding onto (worthless) domain names?

@duh- thanks for buzzin bye.

im just “warning” the masses.
there is no one in my domain league. i am truly unique. i have the capacity for exponential growth. my niche digital footprint speaks for itself.

1300 Channel Natural Language Location Domain Portfolio
http://professionallocator.nin...../mylocator
Any time you want to come to school and study you are more than welcome. Our specialty is pointing people in the right direction.

MasterLocator.com

 

TC, please clean up/regulate your comment system.

I’m sick of seeing comments from this guy shamelessly trying to hawk his garbage domains with the word locator in them.

 
 
 

Businesses and individuals will have to practice frugality and get even more creative with bootstrapping their marketing and sales efforts, but I think that’s a good thing. The days of free money and lavish spending are over, and the true talent will rise to the top.

Could not have said it better myself.

 
 

No offense: Of course you are going to suggest people keep on tinkering. If they stop - you have nothing to write about and are out of a job.

This post read more like begging than coverage.

shut the fuck up moron.

mitch…

what’s your damn problem….

people like you are the reason birth control should be mandatory for some people.

 
 

Mitch, do you work on Dan’s dick with the hands that typed this? I am just shocked….

 
 
 

dan…

to begin. it didn’t take google a long time to figure out how to generate revenue goto.com, which was purchased by yahoo, was doing pay per click long (in web terms) before google, and was generating revenue. in fact, for awhile, goto.com, was essentially one of the few games of scale making $$$.

as to your point about about people continuing to do the basic work to create the startups. people can do that anytime they want to. however, most (the vast majority) of people who call themselves entrepreneurs, aren’t. they simply want someone to fund their idea(s). don’t get me wrong, not hatin’ on them for that view. but it you want to build your idea, you can start working on it using, all your free time. and unless your idea requires a great deal of “capital” for physical hardware, you can start the process. this is the case with most software related operations.

you can also look to other smaller operations, that will generate cash, using these operations to support your building up the larger operation hat you really want to get to.

but, as i’ve stated, most people aren’t willing to go this route as it doesn’t immediately pay.

if you can find a few people who you can work with on a join/sweat equity basis, then you’ve probably got enough energy/skills to start accomplishing something of significance.

the other advantage to this approach (sweat equity) is that you have less competition for your idea, as most of your potential competitors won’t pursue this strategy, as it doesn’t pay anything!!!

when i was younger, i assumed that sweat equity was the thing that would drive people to build apps/businesses that would grow. i’ve since come to realize that most people would rather talk than build!

on a side note, if you have an idea that you’re looking for someone to work with on a pure sweat equity basis, hit me up, and let’s talk.

peace

caliventtures@yahoo.com

learn how, to, use, commas and speak, like, a, normal human, being, please

Was it sucking dick that made you such an expert in English punctuation?

 
 

hey…

screwed up the email above… it’s caliventures@yahoo.com

my bad!

 

sam, do you have any examples of prior work you’ve done? email me nitsuj at gmail.

 
 

then maybe, just maybe, someone will take you seriously

mitch…

anal as usual, i see….

and a mccain supporter to boot!!

hope you get enough love today.

 
 

I think the future of our democracy depends upon successful technology start-ups. So many countries are more advanced than we are. We need to catch up!!

http://www.pass-ed.com/Living-Textbook.html

“So many countries are more advanced than we are”
Name one, Barak Hussein.

 
 

http://www.capitalbooster.com
is coming soon,
it is all about financing new idea with or without VC/PE money

Dan we are exciting to launch a such project in such a tough time period.

 

Thank you, Dan. It is an emotional article, and I couldn’t agree more with you. I have a bold thought, however, probably one of the people who have commented on your article is the founder of the new Google you are looking for. ;-)

 

I agree that constraints and difficult times breed innovation, but VC funding is only one of many ways businesses are fueled. Rocket ship capital is not used to be scrappy with slow deliberate growth. That’s what is needed right now. People need to look back at bootstrapping, the way the vast majority of businesses in the US are started, as a viable means to incubate during slow times. I’m excited to see what comes out of this time as it is the ideas that were being planted during the last bust that have truly changed our world today. The bust made people reflect, be deliberate, and grow prudently. When the economy picked up, they were ready for the rocket fuel.

 

Facebook worth $4 billion? I wish they would go public so I could short them.

 

Appreciate the motivation Dan

 

Nice piece, I think the next google etc are in the works already.

As for people starting things, I think its the us engineers that have the best chance at the moment, we can create a fairly solid product without outside funding and get it up and running.

Also with a down turn there will be less competition in the press for our creations so hopefully that will allow projects to get a following.

Darren,
More concerning to me in the long run is the lack of interest in math, science, and engineering in the US. With so much of the global economy based on technical capabilities, we need to incentivise people to go into the fields with high ROI.

 
 

This is very encouraging. I’ve been working hard everyday to think of new ideas that could potentially grow into something big. I love the internet and I love startups. I also love to design and create new things. I hope one day I can make something great out of it.

Thanks for the post, definitely a great morale booster.

 

Thank you - I really liked your post.
Maybe a startup at this sort of time will be stronger.
A guy in the UK is selling raffle tickets on his house - 10,000 @ £25 over a year.
I hope this sparks something positive for someone.

 

Great Article! Pay no attention to the negative posts. I feel that start ups have the advantage of not being involved with the previous market conditions and are better positioned to “weather the storm” since, in most cases, what has happened (and will continue to happen) will not effect them that much except on a personal level.
Just my thoughts…

 

Great motivational post,

Allthough we are in an economic downturn, for an entrepreneur this is just a market condition that has no bearing on the capabillity to forge abnormal profits.

If anythng the economic outlook gives more credance to the game, and with no VC capital; that means, ownership, ownership, ownership…!

 

I couldn’t agree more. Although the current financial climate may not be the best for starting a company, the opportunity for innovation couldn’t be any greater. Innovate away, I say.

Boris
http://www.thewebwar.com

 

You’re absolutely right - down times are the best times to start a startup. Everyone will think you’re crazy, but you’ll laugh all the way to the bank.

However, Ning was started during the boom, not pre-boom. :) Six Apart and Plaxo were good examples, though…

 

Dan,
Thanks for your comments which reflect the approach that I’m taking in our startup business. Like many other entrepreneurs, I believe that we have a seed of one of the next big things on the Internet. And I don’t think that it’s a hyperbole. Our seed and goal focus on developing the first truly semantic social network. I believe that social networks and semantic search engines will eventually converge into an integrated application that I’m referring to as a ’semantic social network.’

While we believe that we have the right seed for one of the next big things - that is, the semantic social network - I must say that the ’soil’ or ‘environment’ may be just as important as the seed. In fact, if the soil or environment is not conducive, the plant could perish inspite of the seed’s potential.

The point I’m trying to make is that while disruptive innovation may be a necessary condition or ’seed’ for having a wildly successful business, let’s not forget that an inhospitable soil (local or internal business factors) may inhibit growth of the plant (business) as much as the general climate (external financial and economic factors). Coming to think of it, I’m not making an excuse in advance. I’m just simply thinking aloud.

Thanks for stimulating my thoughts.

Best,
Rod King.

http://search.galaxyit.com

http://projectstoryboard.ning.com

Rod, problems beget solutions, not the other way around. Unfortunately it sounds like you have a technology in search of a product, never a good thing.

Ben,
You make a good observation that problems beget solutions. The technology, about which I’m talking, already exists in an online product that focuses on managing the larger and ever increasing industry problem of information overload. At a customer level, the technology deals with overcoming inefficiency problems that knowledge workers and students experience when organizing and managing ideas from different sources during projects.

For instance, when doing research on the Internet, users typically use one type of software application to search for information, another to collate and organize information, another application to write reports, and yet another application to make presentations, and still yet another application to collaborate on and track the project, notwithstanding using different applications for social networking. Wouldn’t it be more productive if such users could go to one web application (site) and seamlessly complete all those tasks? I think fragmentation of information is a serious problem especially for knowledge workers and students on the web.

Our technology, which is being demonstrated and is patent-pending, offers the prospects of using the same zoomable interface for accessing, organizing, and managing information from multiple software applications and information sources. The experience is similar to having a one-in-all software or an integrated suite of Internet applications. As devices like the iPhone and iPod indicate, I believe that this technological convergence is inevitable.

I hope the above explanation indicates the range of our technology in solving real problems especially inefficiencies experienced by knowledge workers and students. Should you have further comments or questions, I’d be glad to hear from you.

Best,
Rod King.

 
 
 

We are planting the new seed for the next big thing as we are reading this. It will be about bringing something different into the web arena. But unlike the Web 2.0, it will be difficult to implement and it has different components that needs to work together in order to function correctly. We are up to the challenge and hopefully you will hear about us a year from now.

Thanks

 

I stopped reading at “Web 3.0.”

Please, don’t push that turn. I’m gonna go read the rest of the post now. ;)

I meant term, not turn. :p

 
 

I don’t agree that now is the time to leave the day job… but it just might be in another 6 months.

I’m saving money like crazy right now while I have work, because once the work
runs out, startup time!

 

As someone who’s been with a number of start-up companies in both good and bad times, I can tell you that one of my first major success stories came out of one of the worst Wall Street down turns. The company just developed a better mousetrap! My advice: Don’t stop, don’t let these times get in the way, if you have something that that makes sense, is needed with a good ROI - go for it!

 

This downturn will simply reduce the amount of duds getting funded to failure. The amount of successes will remain the same

 

Concerning Facebook and Google: both companies owe their early success much to just being in the right place at the right time with the right products and services. The differences are that Google has successfully monetized their products and services, fueled in part by both quality products and zealous users, while Facebook has had relatively paltry success in monetization despite its own loyal fan base. Clever marketing, near natural monopolism by choice, and a bit of luck have rounded out these companies’ successes. Are there other entrepreneurs whose ideas hold the same future potential? Perhaps . . . but Google’s and Facebooks don’t come along every day …

 

ok, you really lost credibility with this obviously pandering sentence, although I liked the rest of the article: “And incredible organizations like Six Apart, Plaxo, and Ning ….”.

incredible? those 3 are your examples?

 

oh come on. TC makes money by covering startups. no startups = no TC. no wonder they don’t want people to stay in their day jobs. Not to say they are wrong, but TC is not unbiased here.

 

I think future B2C applications arising from a reduced ad dollar environment will be more compelling, relevant, and higher quality (e.g. no more eternal beta.)

Why? Because many will return to the old days when users actually paid for software. That single change in the ecosystem will change everything, because our expectations soar once we have to part with even a little bit o’ change. We suddenly expect applications that solve real problems and relieve felt pain. For reference, a B2B startup could never survive a day shipping software with so many issues, that it must hide behind the façade of eternal “beta”. B2C’s get away with marginal quality and marginal utility because the users don’t pay money to use it.

But there are so many new solutions and improvements that the world is clamoring for, that even in a tough economy, if you nail the right solution to the right problem, people will pay to use it. (That said, the who/what/where/why changes when the economy tightens - you have to be smart about going after real customer pain and real problems – but that will always make you better.)

Who thinks search would be better if the only way to monetize it was from user fees?

 

I agree with an earlier comment (made by Sam), that its not enough to simply tinker around with ideas on the back of a napkin. To get a start-up going takes a lot of hard work and sweat; otherwise it will forever remain simply “an idea” and won’t get off the ground. Entrepreneurs who believe in their idea need to implement it - to do that properly requires leaving your day job and taking a substantial degree of risk. That’s what makes great entrepreneurs who they are.

 

“Of course this places the technology community in quite a tricky situation. How can startups grow”

Perhaps startups should think of something that earns money from day 1. There is no need for funding if you have revenue.

 

It’s sunday, a cool October morning,

Startups are (often) like the proverbial lemings running to the edge of the cliff when bubles pop or long drough withers VC’s grass. But still, lemings thrive.

I’ve got a cool idea about a startup for the Web, got some market research done, got some code, and worst or best of all, I’m starting to have a definite fixation with running towards open skies..:-)

Nice article Mr. Kimerling, and I like the posts, all of them.

In Montréal, winter starts early and last a long time, and there are no VC’s to speak of even in the best of times.

 

What is the next Google, Facebook, or Twitter? Chances are what leads us in the next wave of the web will be nothing like them, the problem is too many start-ups just try to clone them. They are the market leaders. They will survive the downturn just like Amazon and Ebay survived when the dot com bubble burst. This will be a good thing (even if painful for some) because capital will focus on fewer start-ups and it will weed out the ideas that just aren’t working.

But I agree it is a good time to start a business (if for no other reason than people might not have jobs in the coming months, so what else is there to do). Real estate rents will go down, and cost of labor will go down etc. It’s when these costs are high during bubbles that the burn rate is high.

 

It’s a very good thing that funding is becoming tougher. If I see startups like inspirational stores funding 10 mill and have one of the worst possible usabilities than I’m even more sure that it’s ok that not everybody will see $$$ en masse in the future.

 

Kinda shallow. I agree that this is the best time to start a company. Its like buying stock - do it while the market is down because its cheap. Since times are tough, starting - and surviving - today will reap big returns during good times. Why do it now? Well, you’ve got less competition and stuff might be cheaper.

I was hoping for more information on how successful companies started during times are tough.

 

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